The Next Climate COP: From Pledges to Action

In the lead up to and during COP26 in November 2021, a broad range of nations announced new pledges for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These included Japan, South Korea, the USA, the EU, Canada, South Africa, Vietnam, Brazil, and Australia setting net-zero emissions targets for 2050, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia for 2060, and India for 2070. Shorter-term pledges – those falling around 2030 – were less conspicuous, largely postponed to COP27 in Egypt in November 2022.

As of November 2021, Climate Action Tracker’s central estimate was that current policies would have the world experiencing a 2.7°C average global surface temperature rise by 2100, while the central estimate was 2.1°C if pledges and targets were implemented, and 1.8°C if all announced targets were successfully implemented. To give an indication of the profound differences between these scenarios, the IPCC estimates that a 2.0°C world would experience 1-in-50-year heatwaves 60% more often than a 1.5°C world, and they would be hotter on average.

Though the world is still falling short of the climate action required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, national pledges are enormously important. Previous progress against pledges has shown that although there are exceptions, countries (and blocs of countries) do attempt to honour them, resulting in substantive progress in the development and deployment of clean technology and processes.

To be most effective, pledges need to become legislated. Passing climate change law at the national level acts as a signal of intent, enhances the accountability of governments, and precipitates related legislation or by-laws at national, sub-national and local level. When well crafted, legislation and supporting regulation pushes the public sector to the commissioning of climate-sensitive infrastructure and the procurement of clean products and services, thus also instigating innovation in the private sector towards their provision. In addition, effective legislation enshrines the provision of transparent monitoring and reporting systems, giving governments an incentive to act on climate change.

To date, 14 countries have legislated net-zero emissions: Sweden, UK, New Zealand, Germany, France, Hungary, Denmark, Luxembourg, Spain, Japan, Canada, Ireland, South Korea, and Portugal (from earliest to most recent). This leaves the majority of nations still to legislate. There are a number of challenges in enacting such law, including:

Lawmakers having access to expertise and being able to draw on international experience while tailoring legislation to meet national circumstances.
Crafting legislation that allows flexibility to update emissions reductions targets, while being strong enough to propel action to meet existing targets, while harmonising with other national law.
Implementing supporting legislation, regulations, and processes to enable climate action to be carried out in an efficient manner, and to incentivise business and industry towards clean products and services.
If necessary, creating the supporting institutions and/or modifying structures of government to adequately focus on climate action.
Instituting monitoring and accounting practices that meet international standards.
Maintaining and/or strengthening public support for legislation and climate action.

This session will explore:

Lessons from the countries that have already enacted legislation – how industry and the economy has responded.
How industry is following on the Glasgow commitments
Creating the conditions to attract private investment in adaptation measures in developing countries, and to encourage climate resilient development.

Scaling up of digital tools to take adaptive capacities to the next level